Throughout the college football season, we’ll be taking a late-week look at potential play or fade chances for the upcoming action. While this exercise might have a bit more clarity in upcoming weeks as teams get into conference schedules and move on from various non-league games, often against lower-tier opposition, we’ve still seen enough in the first two weeks to identify potential risers and fallers in upcoming games.
We’ll move down the list in alphabetical order as we identify some potential college football betting value for Week 3.
Appalachian State -2.5 at Southern Miss
Verdict: Play
Sun Belt sources indicate not to overreact too much to last week’s closer-than-expected 20-13 win over Lindenwood. The Mountaineers should have been able to extend the margin much further, outgaining the FCS Lions 503-216, but kept shooting themselves in the foot with four giveaways. On the plus side for App State has been transfer QB A.J. Swann, who flashed some upside in earlier work at Vanderbilt before sitting behind Garrett Nussmeier at LSU last year. Swann could flourish in Boone and seems to be working in sync with new head coach Dowell Loggains, who gained notice lately as an OC, most recently at South Carolina. Swann, a true gunslinger, has passed for 662 yards and five TDs in the first two games, which includes a 34-11 rout of Charlotte in the opener at Bank of America Stadium.
California +1.5 vs. Minnesota
Verdict: Play
We’ll start to find out a lot more about the Golden Bears this Saturday. What has them abuzz in Strawberry Canyon is true freshman southpaw QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who looked like a longshot to win the starting job in fall camp with Ohio State transfer Devin Brown widely considered the favorite. But instead, Sagapolutele impressed so much in fall camp that he won the job and immediately looked like an experienced upperclassman, passing for three TDs in the opening romp at Oregon State. His pose, accuracy, and decision-making already look legit, and through two weeks he’s passed for more than 500 yards as Cal has looked a lot more dangerous than many ACC pundits were predicting. The Golden Gophers might provide more of a measure where the Bears really stand, but regardless, we’d keep an eye on Cal in coming weeks if the freshman is for real.
Coastal Carolina +7.5 vs. East Carolina
Verdict: Fade
Sun Belt sources warn of a potential significant downgrade with the Chanticleers, who have looked about as unimpressive as could be in their 1-1 start. Coastal hasn’t come close to covering either game, blown out by Virginia in the opener and then struggling mightily as a four-TD favorite last week vs. FCS Charleston Southern. That labored 13-0 win might have been even more of a red flag, as the offense couldn’t get out of its own way with three giveaways, and nursing only a 3-0 lead into the fourth quarter. The offense has been atrocious, especially NC State transfer QB M.J. Morris, whose two-game stat line features four picks and zero TD passes. Morris was so erratic last week vs. the Bucs that he was pulled well into the second half for backup Tad Hudson after nearly tossing his fourth pick of the game. Hudson provided a brief spark, leading the only TD drive of the night, but head coach Tim Beck seems to have lots of questions and few answers for his offense before conference play kicks into gear next week.
Memphis -3.5 at Troy
Verdict: Play
Ryan Silverfield and the Tigers pulled off one of the sneaky good transfer portal moves of the offseason when they liberated QB Brendon Lewis from Nevada, where he was playing under siege the past two seasons after previously working under duress at Colorado in the pre-Deion Sanders days. Lewis, who took most of the snaps in 2021 for Karl Dorrell’s Buffaloes, played at the start of the following 2022 campaign but would left before midseason just as Dorrell was dismissed, saving a year of eligibility, and effectively giving him this sixth year. A legit dual-threat who ran for nearly 800 yards last year with the Wolf Pack, Lewis, for the first time, now has a legit supporting cast around him and won’t be running for his life as he often was in Reno and Boulder.
He’s also providing a bit of a different twist for the Memphis offense and the full-blown aerial show featuring Seth Henigan the past few years. Reports from the Bluff City are that Silverfield and his staff are quite pleased with Lewis and his early work, as the Tigers are a spiffy 2-0 both straight up and ATS, with Lewis completing nearly 80% of his passes and for good measure leading the Tigers in rushing. With attention focused at South Florida and elsewhere in the American, Memphis might continue to fly under the radar for a while.
Stanford +11.5 vs. Boston College
Verdict: Fade
We feel like we’re kicking the Cardinal when they’re down, and we’re not the only ones. It’s a depressing situation on the Farm. But there looks to be no way out this autumn for Stanford, which endured a tumultuous offseason when head coach Troy Taylor was forced out due to an off-the-field situation, and NFL veteran Frank Reich was lured to Palo Alto on an interim basis by new Stanford Football GM Andrew Luck, tabbing his last pro football coach to navigate what always looked like a difficult situation. Reich, who is considering this fall to be an audition for the permanent job, should maybe have thought twice, as he inherited a roster devoid of playmakers.
There are bigger questions regarding the direction of the program, now enlisted in the far-flung ACC, with entrance requirements far more stringent than most schools, and, thus far at least, reluctant to get into the NIL money grab despite the vast wealth of the Stanford alumni base. On the field, Reich has his team playing hard through two weeks, but the offense is severely limited, with Oregon State transfer Ben Gulbranson the best Reich has at QB. The offense simply has little juice and didn’t even get on the scoreboard until it managed a field goal in the fourth quarter in last week’s loss at BYU. With two losses and two spread Ls already on the ledger, the slate gets no easier with gnarly Boston College traveling to California this weekend.
Temple +21.5 vs. Oklahoma
Verdict: Play
From the outside, head coach K.C. Keeler’s offseason move from Sam Houston to Temple seemed curious. Keeler, after all, had won big in Huntsville and been at the helm for the Bearkats in what had been a successful transition to the FBS ranks, and even managed a bowl win last December vs. Georgia Southern. Why Temple? Well, Keeler is a native of the Delaware Valley, played college football at Delaware, and had his first head coaching job at nearby Rowan in Glassboro, NJ. Granted, lopsided wins over UMass and Howard might not mean much, but for the Owls, any good news is welcomed, and Keeler’s team has looked well-drilled and focused. Holdover QB Evan Simon, who impressed at times in the deposed Stan Drayton regime, has been spot-on through two games, tossing nine TD passes and zero picks. Things get a lot tougher with Oklahoma visiting the Linc on Saturday, but Keeler is used to big challenges, and looks like he has a QB that will keep slinging the ball for 60 minutes and maybe keep the back door open. While staying close with the high-ranked Sooners might be a big ask this weekend, we’d keep an eye on Temple moving forward.
UCLA -15.5 vs. New Mexico
Verdict: Fade
Longtime Bruins watchers are fearful of the direction of the program under DeShaun Foster, an alum and star RB for UCLA a generation ago and the first call AD Martin Jarmond made after Chip Kelly’s abrupt resignation well after the 2023 season concluded. There is concern among the fans that this might be one of the worst Westwood editions since World War II — the same concerns the supporters had last fall before midseason, when Foster was able to forge a modest turnaround and a three-game win streak. At least UCLA had a salty defense last season that ranked in the top ten nationally in rush defense.
Through two weeks in the new campaign, the Bruins haven’t been able to stop a light breeze. They were manhandled by Utah and pushed around by UNLV, conceding 217 rushing yards per game in a disturbing 0-2 start. That’s been more of an underlying issue than the more-publicized struggles of QB Nico Iamaleava, whose NIL controversy in the spring at Tennessee made headlines before an effective “trade” with the Bruins that saw App State transfer Joey Aguilar, who had impressed Foster in spring practice, move to the Volunteers almost as soon as Nico showed up for workouts at Spaulding Field. Iamaleava hasn’t been terrible through two weeks, but he hasn’t been great, and his stats pale in comparison to Aguilar, something duly noted in Knoxville. With the rugged Big Ten slate on deck, the Bruins might not have a better chance to score their first win than Friday night at the Rose Bowl vs. New Mexico. Still, should UCLA really be laying more than two TDs these days?
Utah State +4.5 vs. Air Force
Verdict: Play
Several Mountain West insiders approved when the Aggies hired head coach Bronco Mendenhall this offseason. Mendenhall, of course, spent more than a decade winning big at BYU before making a career switch across the country to Virginia, where he quickly got the Cavs up to speed and even into the Orange Bowl in 2019 before taking what amounted to a two-year sabbatical. Mendenhall resurfaced at New Mexico last year and quickly elevated the Lobos into nuisance status for opponents before moving back nearer his home base in Logan. Though a defensive specialist throughout much of his career, Mendenhall’s recent teams at UVA and New Mexico were also known for their potent offenses, and the Aggies seem to be following suit behind veteran QB Bryson Barnes, who had previously started for Utah and owns a win over USC and its reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams in a 2023 thriller at the LA Coliseum. Though the Aggies got a bit sloppy late in the opening win and cover vs. UTEP, Barnes and the offense kept plugging away last week at Texas A&M and ended up comfortably inside the huge spread at College Station. Air Force comes calling to Logan this week, and Mendenhall has dealt with the option before, including last year when his Lobos ran away from the Falcons 52-37.
Wisconsin +21 at Alabama
Verdict: Fade
The Badgers cleared a very low bar by starting an expected 2-0 at Camp Randall as big favorites vs. both Miami-Ohio and Middle Tennessee. And Wisconsin even got a cover vs. the Blue Raiders. But it wasn’t easy, as Luke Fickell had QB Danny O’Neil still winging the ball in the fourth quarter with a comfortable lead, twice tossing TD passes to clear a four-TD spread after Derek Mason’s outmanned team had stayed within 4 points until midway in the third. Fickell, who is reportedly hellbent to re-establish a smashmouth style reminiscent of the Barry Alvarez and Bret Bielema years at Madison, has instead seen his team post decidedly modest rushing numbers vs. a pair of outmanned foes, barely exceeding 4 yards per carry — and even that was with a 61-yard run by Trech Kekahuna figured in last week vs. MTSU. So, the old “Badger identity” has yet to be recaptured, and Fickell is apparently going to be riding again this week at Bama with O’Neil, the backup, starting under center. Maryland transfer Billy Edwards Jr. seems unlikely to play after suffering an injury in the Miami game and missing last week. Wisconsin also must face a Crimson Tide team that won big 42-10 last September at Camp Randall.