The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can visit SportsLine for our model’s main market bets (spread, total, money line) but if you are looking for ALL our personal best bets for free, check out our recently launched Inside the Lines blog. These are just a fraction of our best bets, which are all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team’s personal best bets for every NFL game during the 2025 season. Here, we break down our best bets for Monday Night Football between the Buccaneers and Texans.
Tampa Bay money line (+118 FanDuel)
Tampa Bay did me right in Week 1 by covering a -1.5 spread on the road despite pedestrian yardage numbers. Houston has only looked like an NFL offense once in its last seven games. Other than a 32-point game in the playoffs versus the Chargers, the Texans have put up 20 against Miami, 19 against the Chiefs, two against Baltimore, 23 against the worst team in the league, Tennessee, 14 against Kansas City and nine in Week 1 against the Rams.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has averaged 3.5 more points on the road than at home across 2023 and 2024. The Bucs were held to 23 points, but that’s a lot of points considering their 268 total yards. The odds imply 20 points for the Bucs, but our model is definitely picking up on their +3.5 more on the road production, so we project them for 23.5 points.
Baker Giveth … Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions (-138 DraftKings)
Baker Mayfield tied for second in passing touchdowns in 2024 and tied for the lead in passing interceptions. He did not have an interception in Week 1 against Atlanta, so you do get the “he’s due” factor in this case. Interceptions down the field are an acceptable part of the Bucs’ offense because the upside of 40+ passing TDs more than offsets one or even two “arm punts” on third down or second-and-long after a holding penalty.
Over the course of his career, Mayfield does average over 10% more interceptions on the road than at home. He was 10-8 Over 0.5 INTs in 2024, but more importantly, he ended the season throwing at least one in four of his final five regular season games. He threw 16 passing TDs in that stretch, and that’s the type of stat line we expect Mayfield to have to lead the Bucs to an upset road win.
Baker Taketh… Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 BetMGM)
Mayfield crushed this line last season, going 13-5 Over 1.5 passing touchdowns. And, of course, he had three TDs last week. I’m frankly shocked that we’re getting plus money on this. I know Houston has a very good defense that allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards in the league last season (just 201 per game), but the Texans did allow 31 passing touchdowns, which was the third-most in the league.
This line is based on a false assumption that Houston’s passing touchdowns allowed will regress to the mean of a team that doesn’t allow a lot of yards. This is typically an NBA rule of thumb, but I’ll use it here. When you get plus money on a line that is well below a player’s average and our projection (1.8), it’s mandatory that you act on it immediately because there’s a good chance that the line will move to -110 or more by the time the game starts.
Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+145 Fanatics)
In Week 1, rookie Emeka Egbuka was the “touchdown hog” for Tampa, getting two TDs in his NFL debut. While his presence could cut into Mike Evans’ TD target share, I think in this case it will be offset by the defensive attention Egbuka is getting in Houston’s defensive film study room as we speak. Evans always has the defensive spotlight in the red zone, but now he’ll share it with Egbuka. A single-covered Evans is projected to have a near 50% chance of catching a TD against a line that implies closer to a 40% chance of that happening.
Evans was 8-7 last year to score a TD and 47% in his career. As long as the line is no less than +140, consider him to have good ATD betting value as long as the rest of his metrics remain Evans-like, which they were in Week 1 (eight targets, five catches, 51 yards).
Nick Chubb Under 52.5 rushing yards (-113 DraftKings)
This line is definitely steaming down, so move right away as it’s at 48.5 on Caesars. We are actually projecting him for 14.5 carries, which is the same or slightly higher than his betting value, so to still only project 44 yards means we really are fading Nick Chubb this week. He had a decent stat line with 60 yards on 13 carries in Week 1, but I felt confident this was not the Chubb of old. This is the old Chubb.
His career Under is just 25%, but over his last nine games, the Under is 7-2.
Prop Cheat Sheet for the Game
I hand selected my favorite props from the table below which shows all of our model values vs the best lines and/or prices. The model projected stat (average of simulations) is in [brackets], a player’s cover record vs that bet since the start of last season including playoff games and the current season cover record is also displayed. If you don’t like what you see above then I won’t be offended. Maybe one of these is more to your liking.
QUARTERBACKS
Baker Mayfield [1.34] Over 0.5 INT -138, 58% (DK) | Last 19: 10-9 | CS: 0-1
Baker Mayfield [1.79] Over 1.5 (+115 MGM) Passing TDs | Last 19: 14-5 | CS: 1-0
Baker Mayfield [251] Over 229.5 (-115 MGM) Passing Yards | Last 19: 11-8 | CS: 0-1
Baker Mayfield [0.14] Yes Anytime TD +900, 10% (MGM) | Last 19: 3-16 | CS: 0-1
RUNNING BACKS
Nick Chubb [4] Yes Receiving Yards -105, 51.2% (MGM) | Last 9: 3-6 | CS: 0-1
Nick Chubb [14.7] Over 12.5 (-135 MGM) Rush Attempts | Last 9: 4-5 | CS: 1-0
Rachaad White [13] Over 5.5 (-110 MGM) Receiving Yards | Last 17: 12-5 | CS: 0-1
Rachaad White [23] Over 12.5 (-113 MGM) Rushing Yards | Last 17: 15-2 | CS: 1-0
Rachaad White [0.27] Yes Anytime TD +550, 15.4% (MGM) | Last 17: 7-10 | CS: 0-1
Rachaad White [36] Over 21.5 (-110 MGM) Rush+Rec Yd | Last 17: 15-2 | CS: 0-1
Bucky Irving [2.3] Under 2.5 (+122 FD) Receptions | Last 19: 9-10 | CS: 0-1
RECEIVERS
Dalton Schultz [3.1] Under 3.5 (+118 FD) Receptions | Last 20: 13-7 | CS: 1-0
Mike Evans [4.5] Under 5.5 (-127 FAN) Receptions | Last 16: 10-6 | CS: 1-0
Mike Evans [0.49] Yes Anytime TD +145, 40.8% (FAN) | Last 16: 8-8 | CS: 0-1
Nico Collins [5] Under 5.5 (+114 DK) Receptions | Last 15: 9-6 | CS: 1-0
Nico Collins [0.6] Yes Anytime TD +140, 41.7% (DK) | Last 15: 7-8 | CS: 0-1
Emeka Egbuka [3.9] Under 4.5 (-109 DK) Receptions | Last 1: 1-0 | CS: 1-0
Emeka Egbuka [64] Over 50.5 (-115 FAN) Receiving Yards | Last 1: 1-0 | CS: 1-0
Emeka Egbuka [65] Over 55.5 (-115 MGM) Rush+Rec Yd | Last 1: 1-0 | CS: 1-0
What makes a bet an “Inside the Lines Best Bet?”
These are ones where:
1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model’s projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X’s and O’s and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn’t directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there’s a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we’ll consider it our “Best Projection.”
AND
2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in “our direction.” In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using “standard odds making logic” to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don’t apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.
Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable … which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.