The boss of the UK’s largest bakery chain has denied that Britain has reached “peak Greggs”, after reporting a drop in earnings as consumers lost their appetite for baked goods such as sausage rolls and pastries during recent spells of hot weather.
Greggs, which operates 2,649 shops across the UK, notched up more than £1bn in sales in the first six months of the year for the first time, but its profits fell as it battled rising costs, lower footfall and more weather disruption than in 2024.
The company reported a 14.3% slide in pre-tax profit in the 26 weeks to 28 June to £63.5m, compared with a year earlier, just weeks after warning that its profits would be lower after hot weather in June saw consumers shun flaky bakes in favour of cold drinks.
“I completely do not believe we’ve reached peak Greggs,” its chief executive, Roisin Currie, told Reuters in an interview.
“There are still significant parts of the UK where you cannot access a Greggs,” Currie added, saying the company was underrepresented in retail parks, supermarkets, roadside and transport locations.
Currie also added that Greggs had seen “some very strong days when the weather has cooled”, suggesting that customers like to eat a little less on very hot days.
Customers buy Greggs’s baked goods more often when they have “convenient access” to its shops, the company said, based on analysis of the behaviour of customers who use its app and the performance of its shops.
As a result, the company – which sells about 1m sausage rolls a day – is still planning to expand. It intends to open at least 350 more outlets, including about 150 this year, and said it could see “clear opportunity” for operating more than 3,000 in future.
Greggs aims to open more stores in new areas “beyond traditional high street locations”, as well as relocating existing shops to better sites to reach more customers. It will roll out its frozen “bake at home” range to Tesco supermarkets from September.
Despite this, the company’s half-year results have prompted analysts to raise concerns that the UK could have already hit peak Greggs, as health-conscious consumers choose healthier options instead over pastries.
“Greggs had warned profits would be lower than the same period last year, as the UK’s good weather stifled demand. This will do little to address fears the UK has hit peak Greggs,” said Zoe Gillespie, a wealth manager at RBC Brewin Dolphin.
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Others queried why Greggs had not shared more information about how sales have fared over the past month, at a time of school summer holidays when it is expected that tourists and daytrippers would be seeking out food on the go.
“Lack of information on current trading has left investors wondering if the business has become as stale as a day-old Belgian bun,” said Russ Mould, the investment director at broker AJ Bell.
“This situation won’t stop the growing debate about whether Greggs has reached peak sausage roll,” he added.
“There are suggestions it has grown too fast, the menu is too bloated, and consumer tastes are changing. People want healthier options, and while Greggs has some of these in its stores, the core pastry-based items remain its bread and butter.”